BRUSSELS, Aug 4: Turkey’s adoption of human rights reforms is not enough to win it the cherished prize of a date for starting negotiations to join the European Union, diplomats and EU officials say.
Ankara’s cooperation in reuniting a divided Cyprus and allowing guaranteed EU access to NATO military planning will also be vital, as well as further, more difficult, domestic reforms to curb the political sway of the military, they say.
Even if the strategically vital NATO ally were to fulfil all those conditions — seen as unlikely in an election year — it might still not get a date for accession talks because of the deep ambiguity of several EU states about its candidacy.
Conservative German opposition leader Edmund Stoiber, the favourite to defeat Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in September elections, said in May that Turkey should not join the EU, a view shared privately by many West European politicians.
Under cover of anonymity, they point to the Muslim nation’s fast-growing population of some 65 million and its borders with such Middle Eastern states as Iraq, Iran and Syria.
Turkish leaders have set a target of winning a date for starting negotiations from a summit in December in Copenhagen, at which EU leaders are due to conclude enlargement talks with up to 10 candidate countries, including Cyprus.
“The Turks have raised unrealistic expectations by telling their people they can get a date for negotiations at Copenhagen. That was never on the cards and it won’t happen,” a senior EU diplomat said.
Indeed, many EU officials have pencilled in a crisis with Turkey later this year because of the likelihood that the 15-nation bloc will conclude membership talks with a divided Cyprus in the absence of a settlement with the Turkish Cypriots.
TALKS GOING NOWHERE: Talks on reuniting Cyprus, which Turkey invaded in 1974 in response to a short-lived coup by Greek nationalists allied to the ruling military junta in Athens, are going nowhere despite face-to-face meetings between the island’s two veteran leaders.
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is to meet President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash in September to review the faltering talks, and the European Parliament has also invited both men to help promote a deal.
EU diplomats hope the United States will also get involved in pressing Turkey to make a loose federal solution possible.
Diplomats say a breakthrough is unlikely unless Turkey twists Denktash’s arm to make concessions, and they question whether anyone in Ankara has the ability or the inclination to do so in a period of political and economic turmoil in Turkey.
If Ankara did permit decisive progress on the reunification of Cyprus, there would be strong pressure on the EU to make more than a symbolic gesture on Turkey’s candidacy.
“If they help on Cyprus, the Turks could perhaps win a date in the near term for a review of their readiness for negotiations, plus more financial assistance. But their human rights record will remain an obstacle,” the envoy said.
Former Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Pique raised Turkish hopes at the last EU summit in Seville in June, saying “new decisions” would be taken on Ankara’s candidacy in Copenhagen.
But other leaders hastened to say Turkey was still far from meeting the EU’s so-called Copenhagen criteria on democracy, human rights, minority rights, freedom of speech and civilian control over the military.
“COURAGEOUS DECISION”: One EU official described Turkey as still “half a military dictatorship” — a view widely shared in Brussels.
Publicly, the European Commission hailed as a “courageous decision” Saturday’s Turkish parliament vote to abolish the death penalty in peacetime, and allow broadcasting and education in the Kurdish language.
But it cautioned that enforcement was as important as legislation. “Much will depend on its practical implementation that will be closely monitored in the months to come,” it said.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said the latest reforms would not have been possible without what he called “the clear European perspective that the EU has developed for Turkey” since it officially made Ankara a candidate in 1999.
However, that magnetism is only likely to work if the EU is viewed by Turks as being genuine in its willingness to admit Turkey one day. The Turkish daily newspaper Sabah summed up the feeling of many on Sunday when it told the EU in a headline: “We have succeeded, now it’s your turn.”—Reuters
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