Gyanendra counts on army's muscles

Published February 10, 2005

NEW DELHI: Nepal's King Gyanendra is counting on a highly loyal army to keep his hold on the throne after seizing power, suspending civil rights and enforcing emergency rule in the Himalayan state, analysts say.

The 80,000-strong Royal Nepalese Army has remained faithful to its supreme commander who is also considered a divine link to the Hindu deity Vishnu.

The top brass includes a majority from families loyal to the king. They have allowed him to consolidate power in the world's only Hindu kingdom since dismissing parliament in 2002.

A diplomat in Kathmandu called the king's takeover last week a "quasi-military coup d'etat".

The king has stepped up spending on the army to restore order and defeat the Maoist insurgency which has killed more than 11,000 people since 1996. "The army now has a free hand," the diplomat said.

After the February 1 power grab, the army was quick to exercise civilian authority. It sent officers to act as "guest editors" at newspapers under censorship as the king suspended many constitutional guarantees.

Soldiers have been posted at other offices and put on guard duty for senior political figures, including five former prime ministers, who are under house arrest.

Analysts say the king may extend military control over the country of 27 million people by encouraging officers to move into civilian jobs.

"Until now the military has been apolitical, preferring to support the king," said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a South Asia research fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"This could change as the country moves into a planned period of three years of rule by the monarchy. The king could increasingly rely on the military to run civilian institutions as was the case in Pakistan."

The New Delhi-based South Asia Intelligence Review said the king's takeover has meant a loss of support from political parties and reduced his backing to "the Royal Nepalese Army, a small band of conservative loyalists and a handful of opportunists.

"Essentially, it would appear the king's strategy over the coming months will lean inordinately on heavy-handed repression to restore order in the country," said the review's editor Ajai Sahni, in an assessment published on Monday.

Roy-Chaudhury and Sahni say that strategy is risky because the army lacks the troop strength to put down the Maoists who are present in all 75 districts of the mountainous country and launch attacks and road blockades at will outside the capital.

The Nepalese Army was founded in 1762 and today consists of 22 battalions and 44 independent companies.

Military spending has increased dramatically under Gyanendra. The official army budget was just 9.2 billion rupees (130.8 million dollars) in the 2004-2005 financial year, compared to a real figure estimated of 295 million dollars in the CIA's World Factbook.

Including funds spent on police, security accounts for nearly 15 per cent of the 115.2 billion rupees annual budget, a Nepalese government official said.

With police, paramilitary and home ministry security forces, the government has 144,000 men to combat the Maoist insurgency, far below the ratio needed to counter insurgency given Nepal's terrain which runs from alpine to jungle, Sahni said.

The volunteer army recruits as needed drawing from a pool of young people eager for jobs in one of the 10 poorest countries in the world, Roy-Chaudhury said.

"The military first of all is a good job and that ensures loyalty," he said. "Secondly there are perks like good housing, privileges for education and medical care and finally it reaches into every part of society giving respect."

The army boasts a rich history including repulsing the British Army in an 1814-16 border skirmish.

Nepal's famed Gurkha regiments, who are not counted as regular Nepalese troops, today field some 25,000 active soldiers in India and in the British Army.

The Gurkha regiments, still widely regarded as among the most fearsome fighters in the world, also regularly join UN peacekeeping missions. They have so far, however, not served in operations against the Maoists.-AFP

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