KARACHI, Nov 27: A meeting of the National Finance Commission (NFC) is being planned late next month but only after an informal consensus has been reached on the resources distribution formula between the federation and the provinces and among the provinces.

Knowledgeable and well-connected sources in Karachi, Quetta and Islamabad have hinted at the possibility of delay in convening a formal NFC meeting till January. "The idea is to come out with an NFC award in just one meeting," a well-placed source said.

"Democratic consensus on any national issue has never been the principle of our rulers," a Baloch politician who had been a provincial minister and had remained associated with one of the previous NFCs told Dawn from Quetta by telephone. Politicians in Karachi and Quetta fear an 'authoritarian consensus' on the NFC, which will add to the existing mistrust and the provincial disharmony.

Shaukat Aziz headed the two NFCs in last three years period as Finance Minister. The two NFCs failed to give a consensus award despite repeated assertions by the Finance Minister at the end of every meeting, that a consensus has already been reached. But he is now well versed with the position taken by each of the four provinces on resources distribution formula. He now wants to informally explore a consensual arrangement with each of the four provinces on the issue of resources distribution arrangement before convening a formal meeting of the NFC.

The growing consensus in Islamabad and the provincial capitals is that an NFC meeting that ends without any consensual result creates more bitterness, acrimony and disharmony in the country.

"I advised the Prime Minister to seek an informal consensus on the NFC meeting before calling a formal session," Syed Sardar Ahmad, the finance minister of Sindh had confided to this correspondent sometimes back. His argument was that Shaukat Aziz is now well-informed of the positions of the provinces and therefore "instead of wasting time in convening a formal NFC meeting that remain inconclusive and fail to give any result, the best option is to consult all the provinces informally". Since then, Sardar is tight-lipped and refuses to talk on this issue. Officials of Sindh Finance Department also remained inaccessible.

But well-placed sources in Quetta and Karachi say that Islamabad has neither made any formal or informal contact with the provincial governments, which is making political leadership in the two Southern provinces restive and uncomfortable.

Balochistan has been the main source of fuel gas supply to the entire country for last more than 50 years, providing billions of dollars in saving which otherwise would have been needed in import of oil, is now groaning under a Rs12 billion overdraft from the State Bank of Pakistan because of resource deficit.

"A status quo in resources distribution serves in the interest of Islamabad and Lahore," an official in Balochistan secretariat remarked while pointing out "the Balochistan government has asked Prime Minister several times for an early convening of the NFC meeting." The NWFP and Sindh have also been demanding a new NFC arrangement at the quickest possible time.

While there is a demand for convening of the NFC meeting, the political leadership is also almost certain that there would hardly be any consensus on the formula. "Every province has its own interest and is on the NFC with a veto power," a leader of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) a coalition partner of the ruling set-up said. Even the Chairman of the NFC represents the federal interest. There is an all round clash of interests and a "democratic consensus" is almost an impossible target to achieve in an environment plagued with hate and acrimony.

An alternative proposal is to have an independent commission for the resource distribution as it is there in India. It works for five years, visits every province and talks to the representatives of all the segments of the population before coming out with an award.

This will again need a legislative consensus of a two-third majority member support in a house that is sharply divided. Such a proposal warrants a constitutional amendment. And, if by any remote possibility, such an amendment is carried through, "where are those persons who are really independent and fair to decide on a resource distribution arrangement formula," is another question that begs for an answer.