KATHMANDU: Nepal's royal government sent its highest-ranking diplomat - Foreign Affairs Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey - to New Delhi on Monday in a bid to placate India over political developments in the Himalayan kingdom. But the minister will have a tough sell on his hands.

Pandey, who is on a three-day working visit to New Delhi, is the highest-ranking government leader to visit India after King Gyanendra's seizure of power on Feb 1. In the time since, Nepal has come under increasing international criticism and isolation for uprooting democracy and imposing draconian emergency rule that has led to the arrest of hundreds of politicians, civil society leaders and journalists.

At least three major donors - India, United States and Britain - have suspended military assistance to the royal regime and others have cut off flow of fresh development assistance until democracy is restored.

Nepal's Finance Minister Madhukar Shumsher Rana, who returned on Sunday from a donors meeting in Paris, was candid enough to admit that "donors are in a wait and see mood. They want restrictions on political parties and the press lifted before committing fresh funds."

Though publicly, the continued international pressure may have had little effect on the Nepal government's policy - since arrests and media censorship have continued - in private, the government may be feeling the pinch. Hence, Pandey's visit to New Delhi takes on an added significance because India is seen as the lynchpin in the international community's response to the Nepal situation.

The 'Times of India', a respected Delhi-based newspaper, speculated that Pandey might have come with a message from King Gyanendra that he is willing to ease the controls on political parties and the media in exchange for new donor assistance.

"Pandey will convey the king's willingness to ease restrictions on media and political leaders in the Himalayan kingdom, meeting partially India's demand for immediate restoration of multiparty democracy and the release of all political prisoners," said the newspaper on Monday in its on-line edition.

If India relents and eases the pressure on the monarch, other countries could follow suit. And Pandey has gone to India based on this assumption. But knowledgeable diplomatic sources in Kathmandu indicate a country like India will be looking for action rather than mere words.

"Whatever Pandey's mission is, India is in no mood to relent at the moment without some concrete action by the Nepali government," said a foreign policy expert who requested anonymity.

"India can't be seen to take a tough stand early, only to backtrack in a few weeks. It will damage its standing among other countries. Indian leaders will certainly give Pandey a good hearing, but may not make any commitments," added the expert.

Indeed, India's stand on the royal coup in Nepal is still tough. Only last week, Indian Foreign Minister K. Natwar Singh told his country's parliament that India was unambiguous in its call for an early return to democratic rule in Nepal.

"Multi-party democracy and a constitutional monarchy are the twin pillars of stability in Nepal," he said, adding that all military assistance to Nepal "is under constant review" - the diplomatic-speak for non-entertainment of new requests.

Military and development assistance is crucial for Nepal. About 60 per cent of this impoverished Himalayan kingdom's annual development budget is made up from foreign loans and grants.

Additionally, India, United States and Britain are significant suppliers of military assistance to the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) that is bogged down in a brutal fight with Maoist rebels who are in armed struggle to create a kingless communist republic. The nine-year long insurgency has led to more than 11,000 deaths.

King Gyanendra, while seizing power on Feb 1, cited the democratic government's inability to deal with the insurgency as a reason for suspending civil liberties and declaring a state of emergency. But most donors are unconvinced, saying that an authoritarian regime is more likely to play into the hands of the Maoists than resolve the crisis. Western donors and India have urged the king to quickly restore democratic rule and forge an alliance with political parties to deal with the Maoists.

Unfortunately, such calls have so far fallen on deaf ears as emergency rule imposed on Feb 1 by Gyanendra continues to claim its victims in the media, political parties and civil society.

Last week, the government released new regulations prohibiting the media from disseminating any information or publishing news related to security matters without obtaining prior information from the security forces.

The new regulations coincide with reports of increased violent attacks on the media by security forces. Journalists have been held and interrogated or beaten for their reporting. In once instance, a Nepal TV reporter was beaten for photographing bodies of soldiers killed in a Maoist attack.

Two of Nepal's biggest political parties - the Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) - have found the current climate extremely restrictive to carry out their normal activities. As a result, the Nepali Congress has been forced to hold its district convention meetings across the border in India, and the UML has been driven underground.

The situation is reminiscent of the days prior to 1990 when political parties were banned and were forced to work either in exile or underground, until the absolute rule of King Birendra Bir Bikram Shah - Gyanendra's brother - was overthrown in favour of multi-party democracy in April 1990 by a popular movement. But 15 years on, Nepal has come a full circle.

As Minister Pandey conducts his high-level diplomacy in India, all eyes are set on New Delhi. If India gives in to Pandey's charm offensive, other donors waiting in the wings could let their guard down and tone down their criticism of King Gyanendra.

"What India does, others will follow," said a senior editor of a leading newspaper who requested anonymity. "Nepal's fortunes will once again be decided in Delhi." -Dawn/The Inter Press News Service.

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