KIEV: Ukraine's Viktor Yushchenko may be the toast of Western capitals but he will have a tricky balance to maintain between the West and big neighbour Russia if, as expected, he wins the re-run of a rigged election next Sunday.
The would-be president's call of "let's not miss the train for Europe" - moving Ukraine into the European mainstream and possibly joining the European Union and NATO - has met with resounding endorsement from many supporters at street rallies. But the 50-year-old liberal former prime minister, often labelled Western-leaning, has cautiously emphasized that Russia, the former imperial master, remains a "strategic partner".
All the same, Ukraine, long Russia's closest ally in former Soviet territory, seems likely to shift - however gradually - towards Brussels and Washington if Yushchenko beats Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich in the Dec 26 repeat vote.
Moscow openly backed the prime minister in the Nov 21 run-off between the two men that gave victory to Yanukovich but was later annulled by the Supreme Court on grounds of fraud.
The EU, to which three of Ukraine's neighbours belong, came down heavily in favour of a re-run of the poll, some time before the Supreme Court ruling. And diplomats in NATO have said informally that the US-led alliance is ready to speed Ukraine towards closer ties and membership if Yushchenko wins the new vote.
"UNIQUE PLACE": All this could be a bitter pill for Russia to swallow after centuries of seeing Ukraine as a "younger brother" - a role some analysts say Yushchenko would end forever.
Doubts remain over Moscow's likely reaction, with memories fresh of a spat this year in which Russian nationalists refused to accept Ukraine's sovereignty over a Black Sea island.
"With Yushchenko, there will be no younger or older brother," said analyst Oleksander Dergachyov. "There remains the real problem of Russia's irrational position in the construction of Europe. But I believe that Russia will quickly learn that Yushchenko is a far better option as leader of the country next door than Yanukovich."
Yushchenko says much remains to be done before his country of 47 million people, where the average monthly salary is $100, can dream of joining the EU, whose wealth and democracy have been a beacon for the ex-communist states of eastern Europe.
Yushchenko, whose power base is mainly in the capital Kiev and in western regions of the country, conspicuously reserves his warmest words about Russia for when he is in his opponent's eastern strongholds.
PRACTICAL TIES: But he also seeks better, more practical ties with Russia, which provides Ukraine with much of its oil imports and gives it gas in payment for transit of Russian energy deliveries across Ukraine territory.
"We will tackle issues still unresolved - economic policy, trade, customs, jobs, capital," he said. "The main thing is that these issues should not block Ukraine's road to the EU."
Any quick move towards expanding Ukraine's special relationship with NATO into membership would have to manoeuvre carefully around sympathy for Russia in eastern regions as well as take account of the poor state of Ukraine's military. Ukrainian analysts say a Yushchenko victory offers the EU, and the West at large, a chance to review its policies towards the former Soviet Union. -Reuters
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