PARIS: Ethiopia’s powerful army has won a victory over Islamist forces in Somalia, but now the troubled region risks seeing the conquered country descend into Iraq-style unrest that could spread, experts warn.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told Le Parisien newspaper on Thursday that he was worried about the `threat of a chain reaction’ that could destabilise a large part of Africa.

“Darfur has gone on for nearly four years, now there’s Somalia. With these two crises, there’s a major risk of destabilisation in a strategic zone that is essential for all the African continent,” he said.

In a week, Somali government soldiers, backed by thousands of Ethiopian troops equipped with tanks, heavy artillery and Mig fighters, have forced back Islamic Courts Union forces and thrown them out of Mogadishu, the capital they have held since June.

Analysts say the question now is how Ethiopia can secure its victory in a country that has known only chaos since 1991 and against an enemy likely to turn to guerilla tactics.

In London, Sally Healy, an associate fellow at the Chatham House institute on international relations, said the Iraq experience could apply to this war.

“I think the context of this so-called war on terror is very relevant, because the Ethiopians themselves have characterised the government in Mogadishu as an extremist one, a terrorist one, and the US supported this too,” she said.

She added that while Islamists Might initially be beaten in Mogadishu, they will likely become `radicalised’ and unwilling to accept a negotiated peace.

“The most difficult for the Ethiopians will not be to take over (the capital) but to hold on,” she said.

A western military expert said that what the Ethiopians most risk `is that what happened to the Americans in Iraq happens to them -- the loss of their soldiers and then them finally being forced to retreat’. The Islamist movement in Somalia has already vowed a long conflict with Ethiopia and `a change of tactics’, while the Iraq branch of Al Qaeda has called for militants to help counter `the invasion of Somalia by the Crusader state Ethiopia’.

Ethiopia, a predominantly Christian country, launched its offensive with the support of the United States, which feared Somalia Might become a new sanctuary for Al Qaeda.The UN special envoy for Somalia, Francois Lonseny Fall, told the UN Security Council on Tuesday he was pessimistic if prolonged guerrilla fighting precluded a brokered truce.

In that case, he said, Somalia `will face a period of deepening conflict and heightened instability, which would be disastrous for the long-suffering people of Somalia, and could have serious consequences for the entire region’. Roland Marchal, an analyst at the Centre for International Studies and Research in Paris, agreed, saying `the crisis is in front of us’.—AFP