HARARE: Zimbabwe is likely to sink deeper into crisis in 2006 as President Robert Mugabe continues hardline policies that have gutted the economy and isolated his government, analysts say.

The southern African state is in the spotlight after plunging into a political and economic crisis five years ago that many critics blame on Mugabe, its only ruler since independence from Britain in 1980.

Analysts say although Mugabe has consolidated his power this year with a big victory in parliamentary polls and the establishment of a new Senate dominated by his ruling ZANU-PF party, he still feels insecure and has renewed a crackdown on critics and opponents.

“I don’t think anyone who is realistic is expecting an improvement in Zimbabwe’s political, social and economic environment in the coming year,” said John Robertson, a private economic consultant and a leading commentator.

“We are expecting more of the same, more political rhetoric in place of practical pragmatic policies to rescue the economy,” he said. The economy has shrunk by over 30 per cent in the last five years.

Mugabe, who turns 82 in February, says his government is being undermined by western opponents led by former colonial power Britain, and has vowed to stay the course against ‘colonialists’ and ‘imperialists’, a stance that has won him some popularity in Africa.

But critics say he has ruined the once-prosperous nation through mismanagement and controversial policies including the chaotic seizure of white-owned farms, a move advertised as benefiting landless blacks but which ended up giving farms mostly to supporters of his ZANU-PF party.

Agricultural output has fallen by over 60 per cent since 2000 as an extended drought exacerbated the effects of the land seizures, leaving millions surviving on foreign food aid.

The veteran leader has over the years introduced tough media and security laws that have hobbled the opposition, and analysts say he is showing signs of getting tougher.

In the last month, officials seized and eventually released the passports of three government critics under a new constitutional provision that allows the state to impose travel sanctions on ‘traitors’.

“I think Mugabe only feels secure when he is pursuing his opponents, and his strategy is not to give them any breathing space to organize against him,” said Eldred Masunungure, head of the University of Zimbabwe’s political science department.

“Unfortunately this strategy leaves little room for compromise ... and he is not likely to yield any ground,” he said.

International isolation and agricultural problems look likely to worsen an economy already in a tailspin.

Unemployment is about 70 per cent, inflation at over 500 per cent among the world’s highest, and the country is struggling with shortages of food, fuel and foreign currency.

The main opposition party, once seen as the chief hope for change, is in disarray amid serious factional feuding.

Over the last two years, Mugabe’s government has done just enough to avoid Zimbabwe’s expulsion from the International Monetary Fund over debt repayments.

But Australia, the United States and the European Union have imposed travel and financial sanctions on Mugabe and his political associates over accusations of human rights abuses and vote-rigging, while many western countries have quietly frozen aid to his government.

But this has not dissuaded Mugabe at home or abroad.

Earlier this year, Mugabe’s government demolished shantytowns and ‘illegal houses’ in a drive that the United Nations says left 700,000 people homeless in urban areas that are mostly opposition strongholds.

Mugabe, who denies charges of mismanagement, is expected to retire when his term expires in 2008 but has kept both ordinary Zimbabweans and his lieutenants guessing over his chosen heir.

Analysts say Mugabe has made strategic appointments to senior posts in party and government to ensure that loyal cadres are in place to guarantee both continuity and a smooth exit — a hint that Zimbabwe’s confrontation with the West will drag on.—Reuters