BEIJING: China, sandwiched between a North Korea threatening to go nuclear and a United States that has proved willing and able to topple regimes, will press for one major outcome from six-way talks this week — keep them talking.
Alarmed by the posturing of the two protagonists in the 10-month-old crisis over Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, China has embarked on a rare spate of active diplomacy, sending envoys around the globe to bring the main players to the table.
On Wednesday, as North and South Korea, the United States, Japan and Russia join China for three days of talks, Beijing will be seeking to secure at a minimum a commitment to further dialogue, Chinese and Western analysts said.
“The most likely-case scenario would be that all the sides will raise their most important demands during the talks,” said People’s University professor Shi Yinhong.
“Three days is in no way adequate to address and resolve the problems, but I believe it will provide a platform for the participants to continue talking in the future.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing has expressed optimism before the talks at the Diaoyutai State Guest House. But few analysts expect a breakthrough due to the gulf between North Korea and the United States, which has branded reclusive Pyongyang part of an “axis of evil” along with Iran and pre-war Iraq.
Pyongyang has demanded a security guarantee, while the United States says it won’t give into blackmail and insists North Korea abandon its nuclear programme before guarantees or aid are considered.
ARTFUL DIPLOMACY: Beijing, wanting the crisis resolved peacefully, is eager to head off further escalation that could lead to a destablizing North Korean collapse or even military conflict on its northeast border. China has its work cut out as honest broker.
“China has to engage in some masterful diplomacy to try to get two very stubborn friends to develop enough flexibility that there is enough overlap that a deal becomes at least feasible,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, China expert at the University of Michigan.
Ominous signals from both the US and North Korean sides and the failure of talks in April spurred Beijing into a highly public bout of diplomacy after months of keeping a low profile despite US criticism.
Analysts said Beijing began to take more seriously North Korean statements it already had a nuclear weapons programme. The United States had demonstrated it could swiftly carry out regime change with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
The result was a series of high-level Chinese envoys shuttling to Pyongyang, Washington, Moscow, Japan and Seoul to bring about the latest round of talks.
“Dangerous indications from the United States and dangerous indications from North Korea mobilised China to do more things for China’s own national security,” said Shi.
The crisis has placed Beijing in uncharted foreign policy territory — taking a more high profile diplomatic role but not quite certain where it is headed and hamstrung by a fear of backing unpredictable Pyongyang into a corner, analysts said.
“China is taking one step and looking around before taking another,” said Jin Canrong, professor of International Relations at People’s University.
“It is keeping a low profile but trying to push both sides to resolve the issue. China will not be too active.”
The real test will come if talks collapse because North Korea puts pressure on a relationship once described as “close as lips and teeth” but which has cooled since China established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992.
If North Korea digs in, analysts expect China to toughen its tone and consider squeezing its unruly neighbour economically.
China is uniquely positioned to engage in subtle strong-arming of North Korea as provider of 70 per cent of its food and fuel oil imports. Early this year, diplomats say, Beijing cut off an oil pipeline to North Korea for three days.
And analysts noted that Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesmen in June began declaring Beijing was “opposed to nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula”, a departure from the milder line that China “supported a nuclear-free Korean peninsula”..—Reuters
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