When Japanese finance minister Taro Aso recently urged the elderly to “hurry up and die”, few heeded his advice. In fact, the Japanese insist on living longer than any other race. The politician, who is also the deputy prime minister, went on to ask:

“Why should I have to pay taxes for people who just sit and do nothing but eat and drink?” He made it clear to his audience that he had asked his family to make sure he was not put on life-support when he was preparing to enter the heavenly Geisha Palace. As he is now 72, he may not have very long to wait, even given Japanese longevity.

Certain tribes of Native Americans – it’s no longer politically correct to call them Red Indians — agreed with Mr Aso. While they did not pay taxes, they encouraged the elderly who no longer contributed to the tribe to go off to a remote corner and quietly starve to death.

At the last census in 2010, the Japanese population stood at just over 128 million, of whom fully a quarter are over 65. But the truly alarming trend is that the population is falling by around a million a year. With a birth rate much lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 per cent, Japan’s population is expected to be around 87 million in 2060, of whom 40 per cent will be over 65.

While the government is understandably worried about these depressing projections, many Japanese see the positive side of an ageing country. For them, fewer people mean a less crowded island, and lower pressure on resources and the environment. Incidentally, they don’t view their declining numbers as a Western plot to reduce the Japanese population.To cope with a decreasing workforce, Japan has long been a world leader in robotics. While it pioneered the use of industrial robots now in use in factories worldwide, it has now introduced these autonomous machines in homes and offices for a wide variety of tasks. Some are mechanical animals that can be pets for lonely people but without the hassle of caring for flesh and blood creatures. Others are friendly machines that can display emotions. Domestic robots can clean the house and mow the lawn.

Scientists are hard at work refining artificial intelligence and speech recognition software to improve robotic performance. The Holy Grail remains an all-purpose robot that can be programmed to do a wide variety of tasks. Driven by demography, the technology may usher in a new world where robots are as commonplace as cars are today. Indeed, self-driven cars are now expected to take to the roads by the end of this decade with the likes of Google having invested billions in developing the technology.

But Japan is not alone in this demographic crisis: Russia had a population of 148.7 million in 1991which fell to 143 million in 2012. This fall is largely due to an extremely high death rate of 14.3 per thousand, compared to 8.4 in the USA. Although the reasons for this are not entirely clear, many experts ascribe this high mortality rate among men to alcohol abuse.

In Italy, fertility rates plunged after the seventies, but have risen to 1.4 per woman recently. Even this is well below the replacement rate of around 2.1 children per woman. Currently, 21.6 per cent of all Italians are pensioners, adding to that country’s economic woes.

To make up this fall in numbers, Italy has resorted to large- scale immigration to man its farms and factories. The number of immigrants has nearly tripled to 3.7m in 2011 from 1.3m a decade ago. These are official figures for legal migrants; the actual number will be far higher, given the steady flow of illegal workers flooding into the country. The legal migrants are now 6.3 per cent of the total population of just over 60m.

Despite these trends in developed countries, many regions continue to witness a rise in population. Our planet now supports over seven billion people, and this number is expected to continue increasing to nine billion in 2050 when it will finally stabilise.

In Pakistan, the subject is barely discussed any more, despite the enormous problems it has led to. No TV talk show is devoted to demography, beyond inviting some ignorant cleric to fulminate against western plots to limit the Muslim population through family planning. No politician dares mention the subject. Indeed, successive governments since Zia have largely ignored the issue, fearing a backlash from the country’s small but vocal and violent religious parties.

But ignoring the problem won’t make it go away. According to the website www.newgeography.com Pakistan’s population is now 197.4m, up by 62.7m from the 1998 census. The average annual increase works out to 3.2 per cent, compared to 2.6 per cent for India, and 2.2 per cent for Bangladesh. In fact, this rate is the highest for any country outside Sub-Saharan Africa. The size of the average household is 6.8, far larger than other comparable countries.

Over the same period, Karachi has grown at an even faster rate, with 21.2 million people living there, compared with 9.8m at the turn of the century. These numbers are immediately transformed into flesh and blood as soon as you step out of your home: the whole country seems absolutely overrun with an increasingly younger population.


Comments are closed.

Comments (20)

Shubs
February 12, 2013 11:03 am
It's not a question of whether we "support" the idea or not. We are talking about different cultures and how they approach the question of mortality. Judging everyone by your own cultural standards smacks of ethnocentrism. Believe me, there are plenty of things about your culture that are abhorrent to most civilized societies too.
Muhammad Ahmed Mufti
February 11, 2013 6:56 pm
With 21 million out of 197 million living in Karachi, the federal and provincial quota for Urban Sindh should be adjusted. The federal quota should be at least 10%. Likewise provincial quota must be adjusted upwards for the urban Sindh.
Ali
February 11, 2013 6:01 pm
I fully endorse any initiative you take to slink off to a corner and starve yourself to death...good riddance
Cyrus Howell
February 11, 2013 5:56 pm
"No TV talk show is devoted to demography, beyond inviting some ignorant cleric to fulminate against western plots to limit the Muslim population through family planning. No politician dares mention the subject." Same thing in Mexico. It would be political suicide. "Incidentally, they don’t view their declining numbers as a Western plot to reduce the Japanese population." No. It's a Chinese plot instead.
Silajit
February 11, 2013 4:23 pm
There's no basis for these remarks. India and Bangladesh are different and the reason is that religious participation in day to day affairs is limited and because women are better educated.
Md Imran
February 11, 2013 4:23 pm
Irfan sahib, you have touched on a very important topic. But you missed mentioning scandinavian countries that went through a similar demographic crisis from 70s onwards. Luckily, their economies and societies have rebounded after a massive migration of muslims into their countries. Today, almost 10% of scandinavia is made up muslims, and it has already resulted in a higher GDP, and a more vibrant culture. Japan and Russia are aging without replacing because they never completely opened their immigration channels. I hope they will encourage more muslims to immigrate into their countries which will bring in a genuine change to their falling population, and take those 2 nations out of stagflation.
abbastoronto
February 11, 2013 2:14 pm
Shahryar Shirazi: AOA India’s population fell through most of the 18th and 19th century under the Company’s rule and the English Raj, while its share of world wealth dropped from a quarter in 1707 to 2% in 1900. During the same time India also got un-educated. Education in India began spreading fast beginning 20th century. After the English debacle in the WWI it became clear that they will be short time guests only, India’s population began to rise fast. After Hitler broke their back and the English took the French leave, the population here exploded. Most of our last 10 generations had at most 2 siblings. Then my matriculate grandfather had 4. My university educated father had 7. Education and population have kept pace in South Asia. Yes, the poor do have more children than the rich, but there are other forces at play here, a people's assessment of Survival, Growth, Evolution. Today's Pakistan is more educated than in the past, but the population rise is faster than before. Simple reason - with the demise of Corporate Socialism at Islam's hands, and the impending thumping of Corporate Capitalism, Muslims have greater hope in future of SGE than before, just as India did a hundred years ago. Best wishes
abbastoronto
February 11, 2013 2:00 pm
John may be right. In fact part of the population increase of Pakistan (as of US) is from illegal immigration.
gary
February 11, 2013 1:52 pm
This is the sad part of the story. Muslims are more guided by their religious leaders than their common sense.
Vijay K
February 11, 2013 1:03 pm
In developing countries, the Malthusian theory holds true.
Rashid Sultan
February 11, 2013 11:28 am
What religion of peace? Do you read the papers ratherv than just go tothe comment column or visit the sites in various parts of the country where many are killed violently every day?
Shahryar Shirazi
February 11, 2013 9:00 am
Irfan, Moeed Pirzada has discussed this issue a couple of times when he was the host of "Sochta Pakistan". I think it all boils down to education. You educate people, and a lot of problems will be solved including this one. I am curious how the numbers in B'desh and India are different. Can you please share the source of the date you are quoting here ? Shahryar
John
February 11, 2013 8:12 am
Highly inflated and unreliable figures. There is unanimous agreement that the growth rate of Pakistan stands below 2.2%. What is "new geography" as source? It is neither a government organization nor a census bureau. Such inaccurate and inflated reporting of population figures creates a sense of mistrust among the masses towards this whole issue. Please choose more reliable sources for your future articles. Stay Blessed John Green
Krishna
February 11, 2013 7:50 am
Even in India the political parties like congress, Samajwadi party, communist, Bahujan Samaj Party, Trinamool congress are against family planning because they are indulged in vote-bank politics. They don't want to control this monster of 'population explosion' because of severe resistance from religious leaders of the minority community. India is no different, even here the decisions are dictated by religious leaders of the minority community.
Murad Iqbal
February 11, 2013 7:43 am
Population control should be discussed I agree, but having the elders go to an island and just die silently? Do you support this opinion? Why not just shoot your grand parents won't that be a quick win? Shame on people who even think this way. I guess they don't know meaning of civilization.
Ali
February 11, 2013 7:05 am
Who cares attitude is difficult to make any positive change in mentality to think about any issue.
Sami
February 11, 2013 4:54 am
How can parties be violent while following the religion of peace?
Iyaz Ali
February 11, 2013 4:09 am
We can start conquering Afghanistan...
Raj
February 11, 2013 2:53 am
At last, thinking people in Pakistan, have begun to speak out. That is a baby step when it is too late. Well done, Mr. Mazdac.
g.a.shirazi
February 10, 2013 11:23 pm
Very well said. You hit the nail squarly on the head.