LONDON: Polls, financial markets and bookmakers unanimously predict British Prime Minister Tony Blair will cruise to a third term in a May election. But as Blair eyes the prospect of winning an unprecedented third consecutive election victory for Labour, analysts and his own party activists say nothing should be taken for granted.
So what, if anything, could stop him? Low turnout is the main threat to Blair's Labour Party, analysts say. Traditional supporters may fail to turn out in force given their assumption of easy victory, plus disaffection and apathy towards him after eight years in power.
Blair's support of US President George W. Bush in Iraq is another factor that may make some Labour supporters abstain or turn to the anti-war Liberal Democrats. And there is always the possibility of a shock event before the expected May 5 vote to shake things up.
Although polls show Blair is on course for a commanding win - the opposition Conservatives would need one of the biggest ever swings to overturn Labour's roughly six-point gap - some argue the surveys may be overstating Labour's lead.
"It's still possible Labour might lose: it is not a risk we can ignore," said Ken Ritchie of the Electoral Reform Society lobby group on the sidelines of a recent Labour conference.
Such an upset, handing victory to the Conservatives or resulting in a "hung parliament" where no party has an outright majority, would radically change UK policy on various fronts.
The EU constitution could be consigned to history, and Blair's commitment to cut poverty in Africa and tackle climate change would be threatened. Economic and fiscal policy in the world's fourth largest economy would also be unclear.
Even a much reduced majority would deal Blair a blow, possibly preventing radical reforms of schools and hospitals and maybe jeopardising his party leadership. "A narrow Labour win could mean a change in the balance of power in the party and uncertainty would cause market jitters, at least initially," said Investec economist Philip Shaw.
HONEYMOON FORGOTTEN: Some analysts fear a turnout below 2001's 59 per cent which was the lowest since World War One. That would threaten "marginal" seats where Labour lawmakers have small majorities.
The heady days of the 1997 Labour landslide when Blair's popularity looked unassailable are long gone. He now needs the support of a public angry about Iraq and disappointed that hospitals, transport and schools have hardly improved.
"Electoral apathy is potentially a serious problem for Labour - when factored in, the result looks much closer," said Paul Whiteley, professor of government at Essex University.
A low turnout could help the Conservatives as they are better at mobilising their voters, especially traditionally Tory-inclined pensioners with time on their hands. Labour could also be hit by a protest vote favouring Iraq war opponents, the Liberal Democrats.
"Labour is talking a lot about the Tories but they aren't mentioning the real enemy - the LibDems," said John Curtice, politics professor at Strathclyde University. A vote for the Liberal Democrats could boost the Tories' power base as the "winner takes all" electoral system favours the two biggest parties because it does not translate voting share into seats.
Some analysts also argue opinion polls are unreliable. "The polls have been three to five points out in Labour's favour in the last two elections which doesn't leave much margin of error with a lead of only about six points," said Curtice. And there is always the unpredictable to contend with. Even if a housing crash or economic shock look unlikely, analysts remember last year's Spanish election when voters unexpectedly punished the incumbent government for its handling of Al Qaeda-linked train bombings. -Reuters
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